Prediction markets signal over 80% odds of Fed's 25-basis-point rate cut in December

WASHINGTON — Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting heavily on a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its Dec. 9-10 meeting, assigning more than 80% probability to the move, according to data from the sites.

The markets show slim odds of the Fed holding rates steady and virtually no chance of a larger cut, reflecting trader expectations amid cooling labor data and persistent inflation concerns.

Polymarket has seen more than $171 million in trading volume on the Fed decision market, while Kalshi has recorded over $15.8 million in bets.

The platforms, which allow users to wager real money on outcomes ranging from economic policy to pop culture events, have emerged as barometers of public and investor sentiment.

The anticipated decision comes as the Trump administration grapples with an affordability crisis marked by high housing costs, elevated prices for essentials and growing financial pressures on households.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates more aggressively. Powell's term ends in May 2026.

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent completed interviews Tuesday for Powell's potential successor, and Trump could name a new chair by Christmas.

--REAL AMERICA'S VOICE

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