Politically speaking, a Trump candidacy and nomination is haunting the Democrat Party much like a migraine headache. On the Republican reservation, about half are ardent Trump supporters and say, "Hell Yeah," he can win, and the other half are mumbling; "uh, we aren't so sure," — then they give you nine reasons why a Trump nomination will be a disaster for the party.
Dissecting this question, we must first throw in several caveats. While many of the Trump faithful are discounting this January 6th Congressional Committee as being a pseudo kangaroo court, it's worth mentioning that they do have the ability to make life very difficult for the former President going forward. Up to and including recommending felony indictments to the Department of Justice.
In fact, it is being reported that the Committee is likely to recommend that the DOJ begin investigating Trump and press charges for "witness tampering." We, on the right, will, of course, make attempts to discount and say, "well, the liberals are at again with fake this or fake that." But the fact is, in the end, this is a United States House of Representatives Subcommittee. Again, they have enormous power, including handing you over to the Attorney General and Department of Justice.
The second piece to this puzzle will be if former President Trump can escape charges or references for charges from this January 6th Committee. If he can come out unscathed, he has a good chance of winning the nomination. Then winning the general depends on "who the Democrats put up to run in 24."
Here are the variables for the 2024 race for the White House.
- Trump must come out of these hearings relatively clean. If he has charges leveled at him, his political career is over. The reasons are simple. The charges could likely be sedition against America, inciting a Coup DeEtat against the United States Government, Witness tampering, and several more. If this is the case, then he is doomed. The media will ensure that all of America thinks he is a gangster, tyrannical dictator, and whatever else they can dream up.
- Assuming he comes out of these hearings wounded and not politically mortally wounded, then the $64 question becomes, who is he running against?
- If the Democrats are stupid enough to put "Grandpa Joe" and the hyena Kamala Harris up, then Trump wins in a landslide. No matter how you feel as a Republican, you will not vote for this crew again. In fact, Joe has even lost much of his base, who may be willing to hold their noses and vote for Trump. Simply because they remember the good times we were living in 3 years ago. And as the Democrat Louisiana Mouth of the South James Carville so eloquently put it, "It's the economy stupid".
HOWEVER, and this is very large, however. If the Democrats nominate someone such as Senator Joe Manchin and he chooses former Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard as a running mate, then the Republicans have a huge problem winning, and this includes Trump.
For the former President to once again become President, he is virtually forced to choose a lady for a running mate, particularly if the Dems choose a Joe Manchin. However, if the Democrats pick California Governor Gavin Newsome, then all bets are off. Newsome is problematic for Trump for several reasons as well. He is very articulate, handsome, and younger, and he talks a great line of crap where he is going to take care of everyone. Never mind that his policies have bankrupted California; that seems to be irrelevant for his constituency in that state. The point is that he is very marketable to the masses.
If DeSantis can garner Trump's support and tone down a bit of the harsh rhetoric, he could win it all in 2024.
There is no disputing that former President Trump has some hurdles to overcome.
- He must get passed this Committee garbage in good shape.
- He must somehow bring women back to the camp.
- He will have to assuage the moderate Republicans that he can control himself and not do battle daily and punch down at the media and anyone who happens to tick him off.
- He will need to stay on message (IE; Remember the good old days? Do you want to continue with high gas prices, high taxes, unemployment, runaway inflation, etc.).
- He will need to stay with the issues and not get personal with the other candidates. People do not like all of the personal attacks. In other words, he needs to be Presidential. If the former President can show that he has matured a bit in the role, if he can choose the correct running mate, and if he can stay out of legal trouble, then yes, he could be re-elected. It won't be as easy this time for him. A lot of the questions for Trump will be answered at the conclusion of these hearings. However, there is one final hurdle for him.
The 2000 lb gorilla in the room is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. If DeSantis jumps into this race, then all bets are off.
By Ken Crow